Pascal Letourneau
  • Home
  • Resume
  • Research
    • Research
    • Research Statement
    • References
  • FNBSLW-740 (temp site)
    • MODULE [1]
Academic Positions
2013-
College of Business and Economics (AACSB International)
University of Wisconsin - Whitewater
Associate Professor of Finance
Education
2009-2013



2008-2009


2002-2007
HEC Montréal (AACSB International, AMBA &  EQUIS)
Ph.D.  Administration, Finance
Committee : Lars Stentoft,  Pascale Valéry, and  Christian Dorion, HEC Montréal & Jan Ericsson, McGill  University.

HEC Montréal (AACSB International, AMBA &  EQUIS)
M.Sc.  Administration, Finance

2002-2007 ESG UQAM (EQUIS)​
B.B.A. Finance



Research
Refining the Least Squares Monte Carlo Method by Imposing Structure.
Létourneau, Pascal, and Lars Stentoft (2014)
Quantitative Finance 14.3 (2014): 495-507.
The least squares Monte Carlo method of Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) has become a standard numerical method for option pricing with many potential risk factors. An important choice in the method is the number of regressors to use and using too few or too many regressors leads to biased results. This is so particularly when considering multiple risk factors or when simulation is computationally expensive and hence relatively few paths can be used. In this paper we show that by imposing structure in the regression problem we can improve the method by reducing the bias.
Investor’s Reaction to the Government Credibility Problem: A Real Option Analysis of Emission Permit Policy Risk.
Kang, Sang Baum, and Pascal Létourneau (2016)
Energy Economics, 54: 96-107
In relation to creating a CO2 emission permit market, there are two types of climate change policy risks: 1) It is uncertain whether and when a cap-and-trade system will be implemented; and 2) once a policy is in place, there may be government credibility issues.  This paper examines the effect of these policy risks on real option decisions of electric power plant investment. To model both an investment decision and generation flexibility, this study evaluates an exotic compound American option on multiple strips of European spread options through the implementation of least squares Monte-Carlo simulation. Government credibility risk leads to more investment in “less green” resources and induces additional cash flow variation, which increases the average time to investment (value of waiting). However, in an extreme case, government credibility can actually hasten investment because the risk may be more favorable to electric power companies. Furthermore, if emission trading is planned to be implemented in the future (e.g., 2020), and the market believes that the probability of successful implementation is low, firms will build a “less green” plant early to benefit from the period before the green rule is applied..

The Model-Free Equivalence Condition for American Spread Options
Kang, Sang Baum, and Pascal Létourneau (2017)
Theoretical Economics Letters, 7(04), 757
A spread option involves the right to obtain the spread between two asset prices at a predefined strike price. This type of derivative security is frequently used in financial markets and academic finance. Furthermore, analysts use the spread option technique for real option modeling purposes. Some spread options are American-type in the sense that an option holder may exercise her option prior to the expiration. In this paper, we propose an equivalence condition for American spread options under which they are not exercised early, and are therefore equivalent to European options. Our theoretical results, developed within a model-free economic setting, suggest that the equivalence conditions documented by previous papers do not hold in a distribution-free environment. Traders , quantitative modelers, and financial programmers in various derivatives markets and the real option modeling area may use our results.

Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis
Kang, Sang Baum, Pascal Létourneau, and Steven X. Sala (2018)
Applied Economics Letters
In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.
A Real Option Analysis on Retiring Existing Coal-fired Electricity Plants in the United States
Kang, Sang Baum, Pascal Létourneau, and Steven X. Sala (2018)
The Journal of Energy Markets
To reduce CO2 emissions from the electricity generation sector, the U.S. introduced the Clean Power Plan (CPP) in 2015. Specifically, building block #2 aimed to replace coal-fired electricity generation with natural gas-fired generation. In 2017, the U.S. federal government decided not to honor the U.N.’s Paris Agreement, and repealed the CPP.  In this paper, we study the conditions under which a reasonable green policy by a state encourages the early replacement of existing coal plants with new natural gas plants, as CPP building block #2 suggested. Using a real option model, we calculate the probability that a firm makes an investment decision to retire an existing coal plant and build a new natural gas plant within the next few years. We find that the results critically depend on the remaining useful life of the existing coal plant. When the remaining life is short, government policies do not play a significant role in this asset replacement decision. However, if the remaining useful life is approximately 20+ years, a state government’s green policy does plays a significant role in the plant’s replacement. Because such plants were built during the “coal plant boom” period from 1965 to 1987, our findings are particularly relevant.
An Improved Estimation Method for a Family of GARCH Models.
Letourneau, Pascal (2019)
Journal of Derivatives

This paper proposes an improved estimation and calibration method to a family of GARCH models. The suggested method fixes one parameter such that the unconditional kurtosis of the model matches the sample kurtosis. An empirical analysis using Engle and Ng's (1993) NGARCH(1,1) model shows that the method dominates previous estimation methods on multiple aspects. The optimization problem is simplified and made less sensitive to initial values. The optimization time, both when estimating on historical returns and calibrating on option prices, is reduced by roughly 50%. The in-sample fit is barely affected, while the option pricing, in and out of sample is improved.
Bootstrapping the Early Exercise Boundary in the Least-Squares Monte Carlo Method.
Letourneau, Pascal, and Lars Stentoft (2019)
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
This paper proposes an innovative algorithm that significantly improves on the approximation of the optimal early exercise boundary obtained with simulation based methods for American option pricing. The method works by exploiting and leveraging the information in multiple cross-sectional regressions to the fullest by averaging the individually obtained estimates at each early exercise step, starting from just before maturity, in the backwards induction algorithm. With this method, less errors are accumulated, and as a result of this, the price estimate is essentially unbiased even for long maturity options. Numerical results demonstrate the improvements from our method and show that these are robust to the choice of simulation setup, the characteristics of the option, and the dimensionality of the problem. Finally, because our method naturally disassociates the estimation of the optimal early exercise boundary from the pricing of the option, significant efficiency gains can be obtained by using less simulated paths and repetitions to estimate the optimal early exercise boundary than with the regular method.
Improved Greeks for American Options Using Simulation.
Letourneau, Pascal, and Lars Stentoft
(Working Paper)

This paper considers estimation of price sensitivities, so-called Greeks, for American style options. A new method is proposed, which combines flexible simulation methods with initial cross-sectional regressions on an adaptive choice of optimal initially dispersed state variables, that control and balance off the bias of the estimates against their variance. Using nonparametric theory on Local Polynomial Regression the asymptotic properties of the estimators are studied and convergence of the method is established under mild regularity conditions. A large empirical exercise shows that the method works extremely well for very reasonable choices of spread sizes, regressors, and simulated paths.
Real Options' Exercise Probability and Timing.
Kang, Sang Baum, and Pascal Létourneau
(Working paper)
A critical difference between real options and financial options lies in that real option holders, writers, and even external stakeholders can modify the characteristics of real options to increase or decrease its exercise probability. One may adjust the strike price, or the level and risk of the underlying process. Using general quantile-preserving spreads to model risk, this paper shows under which conditions an increase in risk may increase the exercise probability and hasten real option exercise. This paper significantly generalizes previously obtained results. The results are useful to determine an optimally parsimonious modification of a real option to increase or decrease its exercise probability and have policy implications.

Presentations
Real Options' Exercise Probability and Timing.    (presented under a different title)
January 2020
April 2018
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
February 2016

American Economic Association Annual Meeting
HEC Montreal
Southern Finance Association Annual Meeting
Financial Management Association Annual Meeting (semi-finalist for best paper award)
University of Wisconsin - Whitewater
Illinois Institute of Technology
Improved Greeks for American Options Using Simulation.    
October 2016
February 2015

Financial Management Association Annual Meeting 2016
Illinois Institute of Technology
This is how you make a GARCH smile - A new estimation method for the NGARCH model.    
April 2015
October 2014
Eastern Finance Association Annual Meeting 2015,
Illinois Institute of Technology
How “Animal Spirits” React to the  Government Credibility Problem - a Real Option Analysis of Emission Permits  Policy  Risk.    
October 2014
May 2014
Financial Management Association Annual Meeting  2014,  Nashville USA
Eastern Finance Association Annual Meeting  2014,  Pittsburgh, USA
Unspanned risk factors in the cap volatility surface: A non-linear approach.
October 2013
September 2013
April 2013
Nov 2012
Nov 2012
May 2012
May 2012
Feb 2012
May 2011
Financial Management Association Annual Meeting 2013, Chicago, USA.
Northern Finance Association Annual General meeting 2013, Quebec, Canada.
Eastern Finance Association Annual Meeting 2013, Florida, Usa
Internal seminar, HEC Montreal, Canada
Seminar, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater, USA
Seminar at Lingnan University, Hong Kong
IFM2, Mathematical finance days, Montreal, Canada
CIRPÉE students’ days, Montreal, Canada
IFM2, Mathematical finance days, Montreal, Canada
3 Essays on financial derivatives.
March 2012
May 2012
HEC Finance Days
Dissertation Proposal
Refining the Least-Squares Monte Carlo Method by Imposing Structure.
May 2011
May 2010
April 2010
GERAD 2011, Montreal, Canada
IFM2, Mathematical finance days, Montreal, Canada
Sprott School of Business PhD Symposium, Ottawa, Canada

Scholarships and Awards
2016
2010-2013
2011-2012
2010
2009-2012
2010

2009
2007
Summer Research Grant: University of Wisconsin - Whitewater
Fond Québécois de la recherche sur la société et la culture (FQRSC), Research scholarship
CIRPÉE-HEC Montréal, Excellence Scholarship
Edouard-Montpetit-Standard-Life, Excellence Scholarship
HEC Montréal, Program scholarship
Sprott School of Business PhD symposium “Best Presentation runner-up” for “Improving the Least-Square Monte Carlo method by Imposing Structure”
HEC Montréal, M.S.c. Acceleration scholarship
ESG – UQAM, Dean Honours Roll

Research and Teaching Experience
2019-

2013-


2010-2013



2009-2012
2009



1998 - 2007
Associate Professor of Finance, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater

Assistant Professor of Finance, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater

Research Assistant of Lars Stentoft, HEC Montréal

Particle filters estimation of continuous time NGARCH models and various research tasks.

Lecturer, HEC Montréal
Introduction to Financial Mathematics (M. Sc.)
Portfolio Management (Specialized Graduate Diploma)
(Ad hoc replacement for 3 sessions)

Teaching for the private sector
System Administration for IT professionals
System Expertise for corporate employees

Professional Experience

2006-2013 Caisse Desjardins Haut-Richelieu, Elected member of the Board of Director and member of the Audit Committee
(Financial cooperative institution with 64,000 members and overall assets of over $1 billion; member of Desjardins Group, the largest cooperative financial group in Canada, with more than 5.6M members and overall assets of over $190 billion)
• Board of Directors: Attend Board meetings; ensure members satisfaction, establish Caisse’s vision and strategy in order to improve members’ wealth.
• Audit Committee: Oversee financial statements..

1998 - 2007 Groupe Conseil OSI, Information Technology Consultant
Selected mandates:
• Client: Municipality (2007): Managed the IT department with a total budget of $1.75M. Managed a team of 6 employees in a transition period. Analyzed the operational processes and enhanced the client quality service and the communication with other services.
• Client: Insurance (2006): Successfully managed an IT disaster recovery. All system where available 5 times faster than designed in the Disaster Recovery Plan.
• Various clients (1998-2007): Developed various applications and interfaces integrated to multiple databases. Administrated a 24/7 support team for various clients.

Additional Information
Languages: French (native tongue), English (fully fluent)
Computer skills: Smart board, MATLAB, Mathematica, STATA, C#, C++, VB, Bloomberg, LaTeX, SQL, etc.